Dashboard/Methodology
Methodology v7

How the Bluff & Spin Index works

Bluff & Spin Index: how well claims hold up, and how often questions get a straight answer. 0 to 100. Lower is better. 0 means every checked claim held up and every question got a straight answer; the more bluff and spin, the higher the number.

Formula

Bluff = 50 × (1 − Accuracy) Spin = 50 × (1 − Answers questions) BS Index = Bluff + Spin

0 to 100. Lower is better. 0 means every checked claim held up and every question got a straight answer; the more bluff and spin, the higher the number. The weights are fixed and the same for every politician: a measure without enough data never hands its weight to another. Consistency and Substance are shown on each page but are not part of the number. Any change creates a new methodology version.

Bluff = 50 × (1 − Accuracy 72%) = 13.9 Spin = 50 × (1 − Answers questions 90%) = 5.1 BS Index = Bluff + Spin = 19.0 → shown as 19

The same fixed weights for everyone. Consistency and Substance are shown alongside, never in the number.

Which transcripts count

Nobody picks which transcripts count. The same rule runs for every politician (selection rule v5, applied 8 Oct 2026):

  1. Transcripts from the 24 months before that date in which they say at least 30 sentences.
  2. Question-and-answer first. The newest journalist-led interview: the interviewer is a professional journalist (has worked as one for a news organisation), on any outlet including their own channel or podcast; not a conference, a book launch, Parliament, or a show hosted by a politician or campaigner. Then other transcripts where they are asked at least 5 questions, newest first, until there are at least 2 and 60 questions in total (at most 6).
  3. Balance: a friendly interview counts only when there is at least one challenging one for it. Who asks decides: questions from opponents at PMQs, the press, committees and journalists are challenging; an event conversation or a show hosted by someone on the guest's side is friendly.
  4. At most 2 question-and-answer transcripts from the same day: a media round repeats the same lines to several outlets in one morning, so the rule takes the newest 2 and moves on to other occasions.
  5. Plus the newest transcript without questions (a speech, statement or debate), so prepared words are tested too.
  6. The same event saved twice: the official record wins over a broadcaster, party or third-party transcript, and those win over video captions.

Approval only checks that a transcript is what it says it is (the right speaker, the complete text). Transcripts the rule does not choose stay in the record and on the site, marked as not counting.

Thresholds and ranges

RuleApplied as
A politician with fewer than 10 checked claims, or fewer than 15 rated questionsShown as Coming soon: no number or share card yet; what was checked is on the politician's page
A transcript with fewer than 5 checked claims, or fewer than 15 rated questions (a speech, for example)No BS Index for that transcript; how its claims held up is shown, and they count towards the overall score
A ceremonial exchange: anything that asks for no information or action, such as a tribute, condolence, thanks, a joke or a lead-in remarkNot rated, like procedural questions; the question stays visible with the reason
Fewer than 15 questionsAnswers questions = Not enough data, so no BS Index
Fewer than 20 emotional passagesSubstance = Not enough data (shown, not in the score)
No contradiction searchConsistency = Not checked (shown, not in the score)
Fewer than 30 checked claimsProvisional
No independent sourceClaim left out of Accuracy
Not approvedTranscript left out
Fewer than 5 transcriptsRange marked as rough

Reading the scores

  • Provisional means fewer than 30 checked claims so far.
  • Every politician's number covers both halves of the question: do the claims hold up, and do they answer what they are asked. Speeches alone cannot show the second, so a record without enough questions shows its findings but no number yet.
  • Behind every number is a likely range (90%), from resampling the transcripts and the claims and questions inside them. It is in About this score on each politician's page; where two ranges overlap, our evidence cannot yet tell those two scores apart.
  • Transcripts marked Awaiting scoring are saved but not yet counted.

How much the scores move

The same judgements, scored with other reasonable choices. Where a politician's number moves a lot, read it with care; where the moves keep two politicians apart, the difference between them is firm. None of these replaces the published number.

PoliticianScoreLikely rangePartly supported counts 0.75 or 0.25Partly answered counts 0.75 or 0.25Equal weight per transcriptOne transcript left out
Donald Trump4539–49 41 to 49 40 to 49 43 44 to 46
Nigel Farage3125–36 25 to 37 27 to 35 30 29 to 33
Kemi Badenoch2924–35 25 to 33 24 to 34 28 27 to 30
JD Vance2720–34 22 to 33 25 to 29 26 23 to 31
Zack Polanski2518–30 19 to 31 21 to 28 23 23 to 26
Rupert Lowe2316–32 18 to 28 20 to 25 24 19 to 26
Andy Burnham2216–28 18 to 26 19 to 26 22 20 to 26
Keir Starmer2213–30 19 to 26 19 to 26 20 16 to 24
Gavin Newsom2016–26 16 to 25 18 to 23 24 19 to 22